Global energy markets reacted violently as the renewal of military hostilities between Washington and Tehran pushed crude prices to significant highs. This volatility comes as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, straining global supplies and driving US inflation to its highest level in years.
Global market
International market price assessments showed Brent crude prices rising 3.2% to reach $94.36 a barrel, while the US benchmark WTI jumped to $91.24 following new strikes ordered by US President Donald Trump. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the administration would “negotiate with bombs” to secure a favorable peace deal after an Iranian drone downed a US Apache helicopter. Despite the maritime blockade, a growing number of tankers are conducting “dark transits” through Omani coastal waters with their GPS signals disabled to maintain flow under US air cover. Fuel costs have emerged as the primary driver of the 4.2% annual inflation rate in the US, with petrol prices surging approximately 50% since the conflict began in late February. To stabilize supply, members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) have coordinated massive drawdowns from stockpiles, leaving the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest point since the 1980s.
Russia & CIS
Ukraine is currently on track to conduct more than 800 deep strikes against Russian infrastructure this year, with recent drone campaigns repeatedly targeting refineries, ports, and oil depots. Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air suggests that Russian fossil-fuel export revenues were 34% lower than expected levels in the first four months of 2026 due to these attacks and tightening sanctions. Meanwhile, Iraq is attempting to bypass the Strait of Hormuz by trucking 650,000 tonnes of oil per month through Syria to the Baniyas terminal on the Mediterranean coast. This revived corridor provides a vital economic lifeline for the new Syrian administration, generating between $1m and $2m in daily transit revenue.
Armenia
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan secured a renewed mandate as his Civil Contract Party won nearly 50% of the vote in a general election described as transparent by the OSCE. During the campaign, Russian President Vladimir Putin reminded the Armenian electorate that Russia remains the supplier of cheap gas to the republic and urged the country to maintain its membership in the EAEU. The victory is seen as a setback for Moscow and may accelerate the completion of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRPP), an American-backed trade corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan via southern Armenia. However, energy security remains fragile as analysts warned that the Kremlin could weaponize gas exports or cancel duty-free deals if Yerevan continues its diplomatic pivot toward the West.