Summary Table of Quotes
| Product | Delivery Basis | Price on April 10 ($/mt) | Weekly Change ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasoline | |||
| Gasoline 10 ppm | CIF NWE | 1054.50 | -69.50 |
| Eurobob Barges | FOB Rotterdam | 991.25 | -68.25 |
| Gasoline 92 unleaded | FOB Singapore | 127.40* | -14.47* |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | FOB Med | 1018.75 | -59.75 |
| Prem Unl 10 ppm | CIF NWE | 1054.50 | -69.50 |
| Diesel and Gasoil | |||
| ULSD | CIF NWE | 1323.00** | -92.75 |
| ULSD | CIF Med | 1334.75 | -235.25 |
| ULSD | FOB Med | 1291.00 | -234.75 |
| Gasoil 10 ppm | FOB Arab Gulf | N/A | - |
| Gasoil | FOB Singapore | 155.32* | -117.32* |
| Jet Fuel | |||
| Jet | CIF NWE | 1500.25** | -110.00 |
| Jet | FOB Med | 1389.00 | -306.00 |
| Naphtha | |||
| Naphtha | CIF NWE | 892.00 | -99.25 |
| Naphtha | FOB Med | 806.75 | -128.75 |
| Naphtha | FOB Singapore | 109.51* | -27.56* |
| Naphtha | FOB Arab Gulf | N/A | - |
| Fuel Oil | |||
| HSFO 3.5% | CIF Med | 586.50 | -73.00 |
| HSFO 3.5% | FOB Med | 551.75 | -72.25 |
* — prices for Singapore are in $/bbl as of April 8.
** — calculated estimate based on futures dynamics and regional spreads.
Regional Analytical Overview
Northwest Europe (NWE): The light petroleum products market in NWE ended the week under significant pressure, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Jet fuel stocks in the ARA hub decreased by 8% over the week, reaching critical levels; however, this failed to prevent quotes from falling following ICE futures. A narrowing of spreads was observed in the gasoline sector, while the market remains in backwardation. Naphtha stocks in the region grew slightly, somewhat easing short-term tension, but the fundamental indicators of the physical market remain tight due to a limited influx of alternative barrels.
Mediterranean (Med): Prices in the Mediterranean demonstrated the sharpest decline, especially in the middle distillates sector, where diesel fuel quotes collapsed by more than $230 per metric ton. The weakening is driven by profit-taking by traders amid news of negotiations between the US and Iran. In the fuel oil sector, the market is characterized as balanced: demand for HSFO remains stable, and supply is sufficient, despite logistical difficulties in the Red Sea. Nevertheless, market participants anticipate the start of the peak summer season in May, which may support prices in the short term.
Russia and CIS: The situation in the domestic Russian market remains tense due to a reduction in gasoline production amid maintenance work and the aftermath of drone attacks on refineries (including incidents at the Norsi and Kirishi plants). Demand continues to exceed supply, keeping wholesale prices at high levels. In the heavy fuels sector, there is a surplus of fuel oil in the domestic market due to damage to export infrastructure in the ports of Ust-Luga, Novorossiysk, and Primorsk, which limits shipment capabilities. Navigation in several regions of Siberia is delayed due to prolonged cold weather, which also affects domestic logistics.
West Africa (WAF): The West African market remained highly passive during the reporting period. Traders’ primary attention is focused on the pricing of products from the Dangote refinery, which offered gasoil on an FOB basis with a premium of about $110/mt to the front-month ICE contract. Gasoline supplies from Europe to the region have decreased, as unfavorable blending economics make exports less attractive. High volatility and steep backwardation continue to force importers in Nigeria and neighboring countries to postpone purchases, creating risks of local deficits.
Global Factors: The key event of the week was the large-scale attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure, which affected four major processing complexes. This provoked a brief spike in volatility, which, however, was offset by the expiration of the April ICE LSGO contracts. Markets are closely monitoring the situation around the Strait of Hormuz: statements by Iran regarding the violation of the two-week truce with the US brought the risk premium back into naphtha and diesel quotes by the end of the week. The global naphtha market remains in deficit due to reduced refining in the Middle East and high demand from the petrochemical sector in Asia.