Japan’s six-month trade deficit nearly doubled to $17.8 billion as Middle East supply disruptions escalated energy import costs, while US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels. Meanwhile, Russian freight rates reached record highs and Russian domestic petrol prices dropped.
Global market
US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels for the week ending October 16, standing 3% below the five-year average, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). In East Asia, Japan recorded a six-month trade deficit of $17.8 billion after energy import costs surged 20.4% following Middle East shipping disruptions. India’s top state refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), announced plans to slightly reduce Middle East term crude purchases for the 2027/2028 fiscal year. Additionally, General Motors CEO Mary Barra announced the addition of hybrid models as US gasoline prices remained above $4.28 per gallon.
Russia & CIS
Russian crude oil freight rates from Novorossiysk and Primorsk surged to record levels between $27 and $48 per barrel, according to Argus market monitoring data. To stabilize domestic supply, the Russian government is preparing restrictions on exchange trading access for market participants with high indices. Simultaneously, domestic gasoline prices dropped in 53 Russian regions, falling by an average of 0.64 rubles to 78.04 rubles per liter. In diplomatic developments, Chinese Premier Li Qiang affirmed Beijing’s readiness to deepen energy cooperation with Russia, while Rosatom confirmed Hungary has sent no notice to terminate the Paks II nuclear plant contract.
Armenia
Armenian economist Vache Gabrielyan warned that gas price increases would hit small businesses hardest, analyzing the economic impact of potential changes in Eurasian integration terms. Meanwhile, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan underscored that state sovereignty remains Yerevan’s supreme priority during discussions on regional trade and energy cooperation. Despite freight rate hikes across broader supply corridors, retail prices for petrol, diesel, and compressed natural gas in Armenia remain stable. Direct gas imports from Russia and generation at the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant continue under EAEU contracts, shielding the market from volatility in international market price assessments.