French naval forces intercepted the oil tanker DF Peak in the Indian Ocean for illegal fuel transport under a fake flag, while European natural gas prices surpassed 81 euros per megawatt-hour amid a 75% plunge in Persian Gulf LNG shipments. Simultaneously, Washington urged Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries as Moscow projected diesel exports reaching 3.5 million tons per month.
Global market
French naval forces seized the oil tanker DF Peak 450 miles off Reunion Island, French President Emmanuel Macron announced, citing illegal fuel transport under a fraudulent flag. In gas markets, European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas prices crossed 81 euros per megawatt-hour as Persian Gulf LNG shipments remained 75% below pre-crisis levels, driving global coal demand higher. Addressing market volatility, IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro warned of renewed energy price spikes, while Black Sea tanker insurance costs jumped from $200,000 to $2.5 million per vessel, according to Lukoil Bulgaria Special Commercial Manager Evgeni Simeonov.
Russia & CIS
US President Donald Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop drone strikes against Russian oil refineries, a White House spokesperson told The Atlantic. US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner clarified to Kyiv that the US-Russia fuel agreement aims to resume broader diplomatic negotiations. Supporting exports, Russian Vice Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated Russia could increase diesel exports to 3.5 million tons per month by late 2026, adding that Russian energy deliveries to the EU totaled $21.3 billion over nine months. Meanwhile, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala called the US-Russia diesel agreement a slap in the face for Europe.
Armenia
The French naval seizure of an oil tanker and US-Russia talks on expanding diesel exports form the primary regional context for Armenia. Russian Vice Prime Minister Alexander Novak’s projection of 3.5 million tons in monthly diesel exports eases potential fuel supply deficit risks within the EAEU. Despite Black Sea maritime insurance surging to $2.5 million per vessel, retail prices for petrol, diesel, and compressed natural gas in Armenia remain stable. Natural gas imports from Russia and generation at the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant continue uninterrupted under EAEU agreements shielding the domestic market from volatility recorded by international market price assessments.