The World Petroleum Congress opened in Riyadh despite ongoing Houthi missile strikes, while Iranian environmental authorities warned that strikes on energy infrastructure released 4,700 metric tons of toxic organic pollutants. Simultaneously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled readiness to halt drone attacks on Russian oil refineries if Moscow stops targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Global market
The World Petroleum Congress opened in Riyadh with global energy ministers in attendance, despite ongoing Houthi missile strikes. Deepening Middle Eastern environmental risks, Iranian Environment Protection Organization Head Shina Ansari warned that strikes on energy facilities caused a release of 4,700 metric tons of organic pollutants, threatening air quality so severely that an evacuation of Tehran was evaluated. In Europe, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic characterized the US-Russia fuel deal as a major breach in Western sanctions. Meanwhile, BSW party deputy faction chair Claudia Wittig urged Germany to negotiate a direct diesel deal with Russia, calling EU sanctions a failure.
Russia & CIS
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced readiness to halt drone strikes against Russian oil refineries provided Russia ceases attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The Wall Street Journal reported that US-Ukraine relations fell to their lowest point in 18 months following Washington’s fuel deal with Moscow. Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry reported strikes against Ukrainian transport and energy infrastructure, while Russian air defense forces intercepted 909 Ukrainian drones in 24 hours. A potential mutual pause in energy strikes could reduce risk premiums across regional fuel markets.
Armenia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s conditional offer to freeze refinery strikes and the opening of the Riyadh congress create a stabilizing framework for Armenia’s energy sector. Mitigating risk to Russian oil refineries reduces the likelihood of fuel deficits within the EAEU. Despite Middle Eastern environmental and supply volatility, retail prices for petrol, diesel, and compressed natural gas in Armenia remain stable. Natural gas imports from Russia and continuous generation at the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant proceed at full capacity under long-term EAEU trade agreements shielding the domestic market from global price swings recorded by international market price assessments.