US President Donald Trump announced the US will not strike Iran prior to the November midterm elections, prompting an oil price pullback, while Vitol Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy warned crude could reach $200 per barrel if Middle East transfers stall. Meanwhile, European gas storage levels risk falling to a critical 11% by late winter, and an Armenian delegation prepared to attend Russian Energy Week in Moscow.
Global market
US President Donald Trump ruled out military strikes on Iran before the November midterm elections, easing immediate geopolitical risk premiums and pulling oil prices back from session highs. However, Vitol Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy warned crude could surge to $200 per barrel if ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman are disrupted, emphasizing that Western oil inventories are exhausted. Compounding supply strains, Hurricane Isaias knocked 1.28 million barrels per day (62.9%) of US Gulf oil production offline and forced the evacuation of 121 offshore platforms. Meanwhile, US gasoline prices hit an October record of $4.36 per gallon, according to AAA, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Japan agreed to assist Southeast Asian nations in building oil reserves.
Russia & CIS
European natural gas storage levels could drop to a critical 11% by late March 2027, forcing the EU to scale up LNG imports, TASS reported. On domestic infrastructure, construction of a 3.6-kilometer natural gas pipeline in western Moscow reached 90% completion, while flight operations resumed at airports in Nizhny Novgorod and Tambov. On financial markets, Russian oil and gas equities became the top-performing assets on the Moscow Exchange index in September. In international policy, an indigenous community filed a lawsuit against Canada over approval of the Pacific Link oil pipeline, and China set its crude oil import quota allowance for 2027.
Armenia
A delegation of energy specialists from Armenia will attend the Russian Energy Week international forum in Moscow to discuss fuel security and energy resilience. Analysts warn that European markets could face up to a 15% gas deficit during a severe winter cold spell, intensifying regional competition for fuel. Despite global crude volatility, retail prices for petrol, diesel, and compressed natural gas in Armenia remain stable. Natural gas imports from Russia and generation at the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant proceed at full capacity under long-term EAEU trade agreements shielding the domestic market from price spikes recorded by international market price assessments.