Yemen’s Houthi movement confirmed a ballistic missile and drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Riyadh oil refinery as Persian Gulf crude exports recovered to 16.5 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the termination of fuel shipments through Izmail triggered an acute diesel crisis for Ukraine’s military.
Global market
Ansar Allah forces confirmed a combined ballistic missile and drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Riyadh refinery, causing heavy smoke over the facility, according to Reuters. Despite regional security threats, Persian Gulf crude exports recovered to pre-war levels of 16.5 million barrels per day in September, according to analytics firm Kpler. However, shipments are increasingly moving via new routing arrangements, eroding Iran’s strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. In the UAE, state energy giant ADNOC deployed artificial intelligence systems to manage export logistics after war disruptions slashed crude exports from 5.1 million to 1.9 million barrels per day in March. In East Africa, Kenya unveiled plans for a new refinery to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern fuel.
Russia & CIS
Ukrainian armed forces face a severe diesel fuel shortage following the termination of fuel deliveries through Izmail, reported military expert Andrey Marochko. He noted that Russian strikes on energy infrastructure have inflicted heavy damage on Kyiv’s defense industry, which lacks resources for reconstruction. On Russian domestic transport, Nizhny Novgorod Airport transitioned to serving flights by special authorization to maintain flight safety. Meanwhile, the Russian Government allowed domestic oil refiners to count direct fuel deliveries to petrol stations toward mandatory exchange sales quotas through year-end to stabilize retail markets.
Armenia
The recovery of Persian Gulf crude exports via alternative routes and strikes on Riyadh refinery infrastructure remain a central focus for Armenian economists, who are evaluating broader risks for Eurasian fuel transit. Despite Middle Eastern volatility and regional supply shifts, retail prices for petrol, diesel, and compressed natural gas in Armenia remain stable. Natural gas supplies from Russia and reliable operations at the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant continue without disruption under long-term EAEU trade agreements shielding domestic consumers from global price volatility recorded by international market price assessments.