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Federal Reserve raises interest rates as oil breaches \$100

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25 basis points as oil prices above $100 per barrel reignited global inflation risks. Meanwhile, daily tanker charter rates in the Persian Gulf surpassed $1 million for the first time in history, while a drone attack damaged a major Russian refinery in Yaroslavl.

Global market

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its first rate increase since 2023 in response to surging energy-driven inflation. Despite a minor pullback, Brent crude traded at $105.6 per barrel and WTI at $102.3 per barrel, while US President Donald Trump stated prices would fall rapidly once the Iran conflict ends. In maritime logistics, daily tanker charter rates in the Persian Gulf reached a record $1.035 million, according to Baltic Exchange data, as vessel supply tightened. In South America, US energy firm Continental Resources signed an agreement with Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA to develop the Ayacucho 2 block containing 30 billion barrels of oil in place. Additionally, August bunker fuel sales at the UAE Port of Fujairah plunged 65% year-on-year.

Russia & CIS

A drone attack involving 65 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles damaged a refinery in Yaroslavl, causing a fire at the facility, reported Yaroslavl Regional Governor Mikhail Yevrayev. On the corporate front, state-owned Zarubezhneft acquired gas company ESN, which holds the license for the Korovinskoye gas field in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, from Rushim at below-market valuation. Addressing security risks, Head of the Energy Producers Council Alexandra Panina proposed incorporating power plant anti-drone defense expenses into wholesale power capacity surcharges. Kamchatka Krai Governor Vladimir Solodov agreed to purchase radar protection systems from Tula Region. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia estimated underlying August inflation at 5%–6%, driven by rising fuel costs and utility tariffs.

Armenia

Armenia reduced petrol imports from Russia at preferential prices and is increasingly purchasing fuel at global market rates, according to Sputnik economic analysts. This import shift has heightened domestic market vulnerability to international price volatility, keeping retail petrol and diesel prices at elevated levels. However, news.am reported that Saudi Aramco may partially restart its East-West pipeline in the coming days, which could ease regional transport bottlenecks. Domestic fuel availability remains supported under long-term supply agreements within the EAEU, protecting local consumers from extreme market shocks recorded by international market price assessments.

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