Saudi Arabian crude delivery times to Asia could increase 2.5-fold to 100 days round-trip if shipping is rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope amid threats to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Concurrently, global oil industry participants are preparing for a multi-year US-Iran war in the Persian Gulf as European natural gas prices topped $1,000 per thousand cubic meters.
Global market
Oil producers, traders, and refiners are bracing for a prolonged US-Iran war in the Persian Gulf, expecting sustained high crude prices with little prospect of a rapid resolution, reported Reuters columnist Clyde Russell from the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC). Logistics risks expanded as Japanese newspaper Asahi reported Saudi crude delivery times to Asia could increase 2.5-fold to 100 days round-trip if tankers bypass the Bab al-Mandeb Strait via the Cape of Good Hope. Broader energy sector challenges grew as widespread electricity theft for illegal cryptocurrency mining burdened power grids in developing nations, while governments continue struggling with long-term disposal solutions for radioactive waste from expanding nuclear operations.
Russia & CIS
European natural gas spot prices surpassed $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since December 22, 2022, which Russian Presidential Special Representative Kirill Dmitriev called the price of globalist policy failures. On financial markets, energy equities rallied on the SPB Exchange, with shares of Gazprom and NOVATEK rising nearly 3%. In nuclear operations, Zaporizhzhia NPP Director Yuri Chernichuk assured that personnel will not abandon the facility despite external pressures from Kyiv. Meanwhile, lightning struck a power plant in Amur Region, igniting oil circuit breakers within the distribution unit building.
Armenia
The Kremlin warned that the situation near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is spiraling out of control and threatens mega-escalation, news.am reported as Middle Eastern shipping risks mounted. Potential delivery delays extending crude transit to 100 days and European gas prices remaining above $1,000 pose indirect supply risks for regional importers. Additionally, German authorities detained a suspect in energy grid sabotage who possessed a list of 160 infrastructure targets. Despite global market turmoil, retail prices for petrol, diesel, and natural gas in Armenia remain stable. Domestic fuel supply security is maintained through long-term bilateral contracts within the EAEU, shielding consumers from volatility recorded by international market price assessments.