The United States strategic crude reserve has plummeted to its lowest level since 1982, compounding global energy concerns as European natural gas prices hit a three-year high. Amid these supply constraints, Canada and Uganda are preparing major structural supply shifts to service global markets.
Global market
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since November 1982, according to the Department of Energy. Simultaneously, Uganda will become the world’s newest oil exporter in early 2027. The Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) appointed global trader Vitol to market its Pearl Sweet crude from the Tilenga and Kingfisher fields developed by France’s TotalEnergies and China’s CNOOC. In North America, Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline hit its full 890,000 bpd capacity, with plans to add 90,000 bpd in the fourth quarter and expand to 1.19 million bpd by 2028. Additionally, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed a proposed US-Saudi nuclear deal cleared a Vienna hurdle.
Russia & CIS
European natural gas prices surged 3.4% to their highest level since January 2023 on winter stockpiling. Meanwhile, Albanian authorities blocked the Sierra Leone-flagged tanker Hanuman in Durres, following Ukrainian intelligence reports linking the vessel to Russia’s shadow fleet. On the security front, Ukrainian drone strikes on water intake systems left Enerhodar, the satellite city of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, entirely without water for at least 24 hours. Zaporizhzhia NPP Communications Director Evgeniya Yashina noted that plans are underway to restore the combat-damaged Church of the Epiphany. In court, a Moscow judge rejected Nizhnekamskneftehim’s bid to move its dispute with German bank Bayerische Landesbank back to Russia.
Armenia
An Armenian lawmaker declared that it would not be ‘the end of the world’ if Russian gas prices increase, amid ongoing debates over import costs. This domestic discussion occurs as Goldman Sachs commodity analysts, in reports cited by news.am, warned that continued Middle Eastern escalations could push Brent crude prices beyond $120 per barrel. To mitigate these geopolitical and transit risks, deputy minister Tigran Gasparyan confirmed that Yerevan has lodged an official complaint with the EAEU over Russian trade restrictions on Armenian goods, hoping to resolve the barriers through union mechanisms. For now, Armenia’s petrol, diesel, and gas tariffs remain stable under EAEU gas agreements, shielding local markets from volatile international market price assessments.