A leading Japanese shipping operator has warned that critical maritime disruptions in the Persian Gulf will persist through the end of the year, threatening winter fuel supplies. This warning comes as Europe faces its lowest natural gas storage levels in nearly two decades, while Russian oil firms receive record state fuel subsidies despite local supply deficits.
Global market
Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines expects Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions to continue past December, with chief executive Jotaro Tamura warning that normalization is highly unlikely this year. This bottleneck risks escalating a winter fuel scramble, as Kpler principal LNG analyst Go Katayama warned that Europe’s gas inventories have plummeted to a 20-year low. To bypass the blockade, the US supported a proposal to route Gulf oil through Syria, with CNN reporting that the US Navy escorted 40 vessels carrying 18 million barrels through the strait on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Iraq more than doubled its Hormuz-bound exports in August to 2.34 million barrels per day by offering steep Basrah discounts.
Russia & CIS
Russia paid a record 197.3 billion rubles in fuel dampener subsidies to oil firms in August, up from 113 billion in July, to offset refinery run cuts and local shortages. To manage severe deficits, Crimea Governor Sergey Aksenov announced a strict four-hour daily limit on retail fuel sales at local gas stations. At the Eastern Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised oil companies for financing their own drone defenses, while Vice-Prime Minister Alexander Novak assured that these security costs will not increase retail petrol prices. Additionally, Gazprom shares surged 2.24% on the Moscow Exchange as Novak announced upcoming bilateral talks with China’s CNPC regarding the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
Armenia
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared that selecting a new nuclear plant design is not a geopolitical decision, emphasizing that Yerevan will prioritize the best price-to-quality ratio. Pashinyan also dismissed rumors of plans to introduce visas for Russian citizens, while stating that “no member state of the EAEU has sworn an oath of allegiance to the organization.” While political analyst Suren Surenyants warned that Armenia faces a tight deadline to choose between European and EAEU integration paths, local fuel and gas tariffs remain stable. Armenia’s energy security is protected by EAEU treaties securing duty-free Russian gas imports at long-term fixed rates, insulating local markets from volatile international market price assessments.