Major Asian crude importers are scouring South America for alternative barrels to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has doubled its diesel refining margin forecast to record highs amid worsening global refining constraints.
Global market
Asian oil importers, including China, Japan, and South Korea, are purchasing Argentine crude to replace Middle Eastern supplies disrupted by the war, according to Bloomberg. Importers are actively scouring global markets for alternative shipments that do not need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Goldman Sachs doubled its diesel refining margin forecast to $63 per barrel, citing reduced global refining capacity due to strikes on facilities in Russia and the Middle East. Shipping costs also continue to climb, with Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index rising 10% to $1,199 per 40ft container. This shipping squeeze comes as US ex-President Donald Trump announced plans to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which fell to 290 million barrels, with Venezuelan oil.
Russia & CIS
Aeroflot H1 2026 financial results under IFRS show massive pressure from skyrocketing aviation kerosene prices, which have weighed heavily on profitability. Meanwhile, the Zaporizhzhia NPP remains on emergency diesel generator power for the 12th consecutive day due to relentless drone activity, although nearly 350 target students begin training on September 1 for nuclear facilities. Addressing broader energy logistics, Russian Far East Development Minister Alexey Chekunkov evaluated requirements for new LNG carriers. This assessment comes as a domestic transport squeeze continues, with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs flagging severe shipping blockages tied to persistent fuel shortages across the country.
Armenia
According to Yerevan-based news outlet News.am, Brent crude futures jumped to $90.46 per barrel on August 31, reflecting severe maritime disruption in the Middle East. While the global price surge and Goldman Sachs’ forecast of diesel margins hitting $63 per barrel raise concerns for local importers, retail fuel prices in Armenia remain completely stable. Prices for petrol, diesel, and compressed natural gas at local stations did not change. Armenia’s energy security continues to be anchored by its integration into the EAEU. Strategic bilateral agreements with Moscow secure the uninterrupted and duty-free import of Russian natural gas and petroleum products at long-term fixed rates, fully shielding domestic consumer tariffs from volatile price fluctuations in international market price assessments.