Washington has formally submitted a landmark civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress, maintaining strict conditions for regional normalization. Meanwhile, the global energy sector is adjusting to a surprise build in US crude inventories alongside impending output cuts in Canada’s oil sands.
Global market
The US administration has officially submitted a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress, preserving the condition that Riyadh normalize relations with Israel. This diplomatic development unfolds as physical commodity flows face imminent bottlenecks. In North America, US refineries face a supply squeeze as Canadian crude oil production is projected to decline by 300,000 barrels daily in September due to scheduled maintenance in the oil sands. Furthermore, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that US crude oil inventories rose by 4.2 million barrels for the week ending August 21, defying analyst expectations of a 1.9 million-barrel build, even as another 3.7 million barrels were drawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
In the gas and power sectors, Dutch TTF front-month natural gas contracts climbed 6% over the past week to $22.41 per MMBtu ($1,165 per tonne) due to persistent US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, driving Rotterdam LNG bunker prices up by $70 per tonne. To secure alternative supply, European buyers are monitoring Norway’s Troll West field, where Equinor expedited the second stage of the Troll Phase 3 project on August 22, pulling forward 55 billion cubic meters of gas. Concurrently, long-term capital is shifting toward advanced nuclear technologies: global private investment in nuclear fusion reached $4.48 billion in 2025, prompting Italian major Eni S.p.A. to announce plans for a commercial fusion plant in Europe by the early 2040s, while spot uranium prices climbed toward $89 per pound on resurgent demand.
Russia & CIS
In Russia’s domestic retail market, severe supply constraints have forced Astrakhan Oblast Governor Igor Babushkin to impose a strict daily rationing limit of 30 liters of AI-92 and AI-95 petrol per vehicle to extend fuel station operating hours. This domestic squeeze coincides with a sharp reduction in maritime supply; Bloomberg tracking data revealed that the volume of Russian crude oil on tankers at sea plunged to a one-year low of approximately 83 million barrels in the week ending August 23. Despite these physical headwinds, state-backed gas monopoly Gazprom completed its largest-ever domestic bond placement on the Russian market, drawing significant interest from institutional and retail investors.
In the industrial sector, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations dispatched a specialized Il-76 medical evacuation aircraft to Blagoveshchensk to transport critically injured personnel to specialized clinics in Moscow. This emergency response follows a major industrial fire at the under-construction Amur Gas Chemical Complex, where rescue teams from the Centrospas detachment and the Ministry of Health have been deployed. Meanwhile, on the regional energy front, reports from news.am indicate that Ukrainian forces launched attacks against a major oil refinery alongside commercial warehousing infrastructure.
Armenia
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that a potential reduction in trade between Armenia and the Russian Federation or the wider EAEU will not cause critical economic shocks for Moscow. Russian diplomats clarified that the temporary import restrictions placed on certain Armenian agricultural goods are strictly technical measures designed to enforce sanitary and phytosanitary standards within the EAEU. However, the Armenian energy sector faces potential supply pressures as local news outlet news.am reported that Russia is considering extending its domestic diesel export ban until the end of 2026 to stabilize its own retail market, a move that could disrupt Armenian procurement plans ahead of the winter heating season.
Despite these diplomatic and logistics frictions, Armenia’s domestic retail prices for petrol, diesel, and natural gas remained stable on August 26. This price stability continues to be protected by Armenia’s membership in the EAEU, which provides duty-free imports of Russian natural gas and petroleum products at stable, long-term contract rates. This bilateral arrangement prevents local retail utility tariffs from being exposed to the high volatility of global spot hubs and fluctuating international market price assessments.