An extended operational pause between the United States and Iran has pushed global crude benchmarks to multi-week lows, offering temporary relief to energy markets. Concurrently, European nations are confronting severe winter fuel deficits exacerbated by shifting maritime transit patterns in the Middle East.
Global market
A fourth night of calm between the United States and Iran caused Brent crude futures on the ICE exchange to drop by 1.77% to $86.80 per barrel, falling below the $87 mark for the first time since July 20. Similarly, the WTI benchmark declined 1.97% to $80.98. United States President Donald Trump indicated that Washington is engaged in constructive negotiations with Tehran, which coincided with a rapid 11% plunge in European natural gas prices.
Despite these price corrections, physical maritime logistics remain severely disrupted. According to tracking data, daily tanker traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz plummeted by 70%, dropping from 45 to just 13 vessels, with remaining ships shifting to unrecognized Iranian routes. In this constrained environment, Reuters reports that the European Union faces acute winter supply risks, with natural gas storage facilities filled to only 55% and regional diesel inventories hitting their lowest levels since 2022.
Russia & CIS
Regional energy infrastructure continues to suffer from targeted military action. Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik stated that Ukrainian forces have intensified strikes, damaging over 20 retail gas stations. Forecasting the broader systemic impact, State Duma Deputy from Crimea Mikhail Sheremet warned that the destruction of Ukraine’s energy grid will trigger a severe winter “ice age” and mass population displacement.
On the export front, trade flows are adapting to physical constraints and supply shortages. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, during an official visit to Baghdad, proposed a new oil transit route to the Mediterranean Sea to help Iraq bypass the bottlenecked Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Turkish importers are facing an acute shortage of Russian thermal coal, driving the price of 6,000 kcal/kg grade up by 3.6% to $107 per metric ton.
Armenia
The continued decline of Brent crude below $87 per barrel, coupled with an 11% drop in European gas prices, creates a highly favorable macroeconomic environment for Armenia. This global cooling directly reduces the baseline international market price assessments for hydrocarbons, allowing independent retail networks to maintain profitability and stabilize domestic prices for imported petrol and diesel.
Domestically, the republic is demonstrating robust energy consumption and economic expansion, officially ranking second within the EAEU for industrial production growth. To sustain this momentum, the national scientific sector is actively monitoring advanced generation technologies, highlighting recent breakthroughs in developing highly accurate mathematical turbulence models specifically designed for next-generation liquid-fuel nuclear reactors.