The escalation of Middle Eastern hostilities has pushed global crude benchmarks past critical psychological thresholds, while severe logistical blockades paralyze the Persian Gulf. Concurrently, European leaders are openly acknowledging the severe economic consequences of their recent energy transition strategies.
Global market
The logistical crisis in the Persian Gulf has reached a critical phase, with daily vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummeting by 60% following recent regional attacks. Consequently, freight rates for clean tankers are climbing, with the TC20 index for voyages from the Middle East to the UK-Continent increasing from $7.94 million to $8.66 million. Despite these severe disruptions to a route historically carrying 20 million barrels per day, Europe successfully avoided a projected summer aviation fuel deficit, demonstrating the profound adaptability of international supply chains.
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Russia & CIS
Escalating geopolitical risks drove Brent crude futures on the ICE exchange into a powerful rally, surging by 3.29% to reach $91 per barrel for the first time since June 11. Amid this price volatility, China continues its massive absorption of sanctioned hydrocarbons, officially increasing its imports of Russian crude oil by 16.7% during the first half of the year to a total value of $33.13 billion.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic and economic fallout from regional conflicts continues to expand. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova formally expressed severe concern regarding recent missile strikes on Iran’s under-construction Darkhovin nuclear power plant. In Europe, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly conceded that his country’s sustained macroeconomic crisis is a direct consequence of the political decision to abandon Russian natural gas supplies.
Armenia
The global crude surge to $91 per barrel and the 60% collapse in Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic inevitably transmit severe inflationary shocks to energy-importing nations. Retail motor fuel prices in Germany recently recorded another sharp spike following United States military strikes on Iran, signaling a sustained upward trajectory for international market price assessments that will directly impact wholesale import costs globally.
To mitigate these severe external logistical disruptions, Armenia is heavily leveraging macroeconomic integration within the EAEU. Official data for the first five months of 2026 confirms that the republic emerged as an absolute leader within the economic bloc in terms of freight transport growth. Coupled with a 0.8% increase in total EAEU passenger turnover, this robust infrastructure dynamic provides independent Armenian traders with vital logistical stability, helping to cushion the domestic retail market from escalating external fuel supply shocks.