The United States is bracing for a multi-week military standoff following renewed attacks on Middle Eastern energy transit routes. As a result, global energy buyers are scrambling for emergency supplies while structural shifts alter Eurasian crude flows.
Global market
United States officials warned that the military confrontation with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz could extend for several weeks. Highlighting the immediate danger, two laden vessels—a Saudi-owned ultra-large crude carrier and a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker—were physically struck overnight while navigating the outbound corridor.
These severe logistical disruptions forced the state-controlled corporation Pakistan LNG to issue an emergency spot tender for July 15-16 delivery after Qatar abruptly canceled a scheduled cargo. Meanwhile, international market price assessments reflected the escalating panic, with crude surging over 5% to a two-week high, while shipping investors like South Korean entrepreneur Ga-Hyun Chung reaped a massive $120 million windfall from strategic pre-conflict tanker acquisitions.
Russia & CIS
As traditional supply chains fracture, new bilateral energy routes are emerging. Following a recent diplomatic agreement, Indonesia received its first-ever cargo of Russian crude, importing approximately 770,000 barrels valued at $75 million. Concurrently, despite ongoing geopolitical pressures, Greece reported that Russian natural gas accounted for 36% of its total imports during the first half of the year.
Domestic infrastructure remains highly vulnerable in regional conflict zones. Zaporizhzhia Governor Yevgeny Balitsky confirmed that a targeted drone attack on a key energy facility triggered severe blackouts across the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. In response to the grid failures, local telecommunication operators were forced to activate emergency roaming protocols to maintain basic connectivity.
Armenia
The spiraling conflict in the Persian Gulf presents immediate geopolitical and energy security challenges for Armenia. Local media heavily emphasized reports indicating that Washington expects a prolonged, multi-week confrontation with Tehran, an escalation that directly threatens the stability of the vital southern logistical corridors that Yerevan relies upon.
With international market price assessments for crude jumping by 5%, the Armenian domestic market faces an elevated risk of severe imported inflation for gasoline and diesel. Furthermore, the ongoing vulnerability of critical regional infrastructure, mirrored by the recent drone-induced blackouts in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, underscores the extreme fragility of the broader EAEU energy framework that supports Armenia’s wholesale fuel supply chains.