Global macroeconomic forecasts are darkening due to Middle Eastern hostilities, while a massive wave of drone strikes across the Russian Federation is forcing severe retail fuel rationing.
Global market
The International Monetary Fund downgraded its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3%, warning that international market price assessments for oil will average 32% higher due to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, major Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, have aggressively slashed crude prices for Asian buyers by the largest margin in two decades to recapture market share following the tentative reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
In Nigeria, the massive Dangote refinery reached its full operational capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, effectively collapsing clean fuel imports into West Africa by 25% in the second quarter. The facility’s rapid production expansion is significantly displacing traditional petroleum suppliers from the Persian Gulf and the United States.
Russia & CIS
The Russian Federation faced a massive coordinated aerial assault, with the Ministry of Defense reporting the interception of 73 drones across 12 regions. The strikes caused severe infrastructural damage, including a major fire at the Tver oil depot confirmed by Acting Governor Vitaly Korolev, and ignited combustible material tanks at an industrial facility in the Stavropol region. Additionally, the Head of the Kherson region Vladimir Saldo reported that all districts in the area suffered complete or partial power outages due to damaged electrical networks.
The physical destruction of fuel reserves is accelerating extreme domestic rationing measures. Pskov Region Governor Mikhail Vedernikov announced that starting July 10, retail gasoline sales will be restricted based on the first digit of a vehicle’s license plate. Simultaneously, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev was dispatched to the Krasnodar territory to urgently inspect regional fuel stockpiles.
Armenia
The prolonged geopolitical crisis surrounding Iran continues to cast a shadow over Armenia’s regional stability. While the Iranian news agency Mehr confirmed that the critical Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant escaped damage during recent regional strikes, United States military forces are actively redeploying aerial refueling tankers to Middle Eastern bases, signaling potential further escalations.
For Armenia, the combination of a projected 32% surge in global oil prices and severe infrastructural collapses within its primary EAEU supplier presents acute macroeconomic risks. With Russian authorities resorting to unprecedented license-plate-based fuel rationing, the Armenian retail market faces an increasingly volatile outlook for maintaining stable, uninterrupted wholesale imports of gasoline and diesel.