The United States has abruptly reinstated strict sanctions on Iranian petroleum operations following renewed maritime hostilities. Simultaneously, an anticipated global hydrocarbon glut contrasts sharply with severe, localized fuel deficits gripping the broader Eurasian economic space.
Global market
Following attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States officially revoked its sanctions waiver for Iranian oil, effectively banning all new transactions starting July 7. Despite these immediate transit risks, macroeconomic analysts predict a structural global oversupply that could force international oil prices down to $60 per barrel by 2027. In the Middle East, Iraq aims to aggressively capitalize on remaining market share by increasing its crude output to 7 million barrels per day over the next three years, an expansion announced ahead of newly appointed Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s upcoming diplomatic visit to Washington.
Meanwhile, surging electricity demand from the artificial intelligence sector is driving a dramatic revival of the United States nuclear industry. To meet this massive energy deficit, the technology corporation Microsoft signed a 20-year agreement to restart the dormant Three Mile Island facility. Supporting this industrial pivot, US President Donald Trump announced a program offering $17 billion in federal loans to revitalize the nation’s aging atomic fleet.
Russia & CIS
Severe liquidity constraints are currently paralyzing the Russian domestic motor fuel market. Daily sales volumes of imported Belarusian gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange collapsed from over 7,000 tons earlier in the month to a critical 420 tons by July 6. Addressing this severe physical shortage, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held an emergency intervention meeting with Kursk region Governor Alexander Khinshtein to stabilize regional supply chains, while domestic consumers are increasingly pivoting toward hybrid and electric vehicles.
In neighboring markets, regulatory frameworks are rapidly shifting to accommodate logistical pressures. Kyrgyzstan officially abolished state price controls for AI-95 gasoline, while Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin confirmed plans to utilize private investments for a new 15-hectare oil terminal at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. Furthermore, Russian Ambassador to Bulgaria Eleonora Mitrofanova confirmed that Sofia is actively replacing Russian maintenance services at its Kozloduy nuclear power plant with Western alternatives.
Armenia
The abrupt revocation of OFAC licenses for Iranian petroleum operations by the United States introduces severe logistical hurdles for Armenia’s regional trade networks. With the sanctions exemption window unexpectedly closed on July 7 instead of the originally planned August deadline, Armenian fuel importers face immediate regulatory complexities in securing stable energy transit across their southern borders.
These international pressures are heavily compounded by deepening macroeconomic instability within the primary EAEU export market. The catastrophic drop in Belarusian wholesale gasoline volumes on the Russian exchange to merely 420 tons, alongside ongoing emergency supply interventions by Moscow, directly threatens the integrity of the tariff-free fuel quotas that sustain Armenia’s domestic retail sector and protect it from severe imported energy inflation.