Global oil markets face continued downward pressure as international crude benchmarks fall below critical support levels. Simultaneously, the Russian downstream sector is experiencing its lowest refining output in years, forcing regional authorities to intervene in fractured domestic supply chains.
Global market
Brent crude futures fell below $71 per barrel for the first time since late February, driven by growing expectations of a supply glut and the recovery of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Adapting to these softer prices, the Indian government slashed its windfall tax on diesel exports from 14 to 8.5 rupees per liter. In a rare market maneuver to defend its Asian market share, Saudi Arabia initiated ad-hoc spot sales of millions of barrels of crude to regional customers.
In the natural gas sector, UK benchmark prices surged to a two-week high of 105.7 pence per therm as diplomatic negotiations led by envoys of US President Donald Trump stalled in Doha. Meanwhile, global investment firm KKR executed a massive $4.2 billion acquisition of EDF Power Solutions North America, adding 5.6 gigawatts of clean energy capacity to its portfolio to meet surging power demand.
Russia & CIS
The Russian downstream sector is facing severe operational constraints, with analytical firm Kpler reporting that domestic oil refining volumes plunged to a multi-year low of 4.1 million barrels per day in June. This sharp production decline has triggered localized fuel shortages, prompting the Novosibirsk region administration to enter direct negotiations to secure additional municipal gasoline supplies.
Compounding the domestic retail crisis, the Russian Ministry of Energy issued an official warning regarding the proliferation of fraudulent websites falsely advertising available fuel at filling stations in order to illegally harvest consumer data. Amidst these internal logistical challenges, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed a massive precision strike targeting energy infrastructure and military airfields across Ukraine.
Armenia
Amid escalating regional supply risks and the severe contraction of Russian refining output, the Armenian retail fuel market is experiencing a notable strategic shift. The United Arab Emirates-based energy corporation Emarat officially opened its first modern filling station in Yerevan.
This market entry by a major Gulf state operator provides Armenia with a crucial opportunity to diversify its downstream sector. Introducing direct Middle Eastern investment into the local retail market helps mitigate the republic’s overwhelming structural reliance on increasingly volatile EAEU petroleum imports and shields domestic consumers from imported inflation risks associated with the ongoing Russian fuel deficits.