Tehran has issued an ultimatum to Washington, warning of a complete cessation of regional energy exports if bilateral commitments under their memorandum of understanding are not honored. This geopolitical brinkmanship comes as global powers and regional players recalibrate logistics and energy security strategies in response to persistent infrastructure vulnerabilities.
Global market
Advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mohammad Mokhber, stated that Tehran is prepared to completely stop energy supplies from the Middle East if the agreement with the US “remains only on paper,” emphasizing that Washington only understands the language of economic costs. Despite this threat, some maritime activity has resumed, with India’s Minister Sarbananda Sonowal confirming the successful passage of three tankers—Desh Vaibhav, Desh Vibhor, and Sanmar Herald—through the Strait of Hormuz. In a parallel move to secure supply chains, Iraq has announced it will maintain its crude oil and naphtha export route via the Syrian port of Baniyas as a permanent insurance mechanism, even if Hormuz fully reopens.
At the G7 summit in Evian, France, world leaders launched a strategic alliance to break China’s dominance over critical minerals essential for defense and clean energy. In the renewable sector, Scatec CEO Terje Pilskog projected that the Obelisk solar and battery project in Egypt could save the nation $400 million annually by significantly reducing its reliance on liquefied natural gas imports.
Russia & CIS
Russian energy infrastructure faced renewed disruption as a UAV attack ignited a fire at a Chushka oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai, while an attempted strike on the Tyumen Oil Refinery forced an evacuation of personnel. Furthermore, the Zaporizhzhia NPP suffered its 20th total loss of external power since the start of the conflict due to the failure of the “Ferrosplavnaya-1” line, resulting in a total blackout across 14 districts of the Kherson region.
On the regulatory front, German Economy Minister Katerina Reiche demanded that Turkey exclude Russian gas from any new supply contracts destined for Europe. Despite this pressure, Slovakian state utility SPP has entered negotiations for Russian gas supplies for 2027, maintaining that a total ban does not constitute a viable diversification of international market price assessments. Meanwhile, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad identified the oil sector as the nation’s top investment priority, signaling readiness for major new contracts.
Armenia
The regional energy environment for Armenia is being influenced by Kazakhstan’s decision to implement stricter border controls to prevent the illegal export of fuel, a measure that could impact the availability and flow of petroleum products within the EAEU. A former US Energy Secretary highlighted that a successful US-Iran deal remains a potential “catalyst” for restarting the regional economy, which would have significant implications for Armenia’s energy and trade positioning.
The EU’s demand for Turkey to block Russian gas in new contracts adds a layer of uncertainty to the future of transit routes in the South Caucasus. Additionally, the recurring instability at the Zaporizhzhia NPP continues to highlight the systemic risks facing the interconnected electricity grids in the broader region, underscoring the fragility of the energy security framework surrounding Armenia.